Just before the trade deadline, I wrote that the American League playoff picture seemed to be taking shape. At the time of that column, the Yankees had built a seven-game lead in the East and the Royals a nine-game advantage in the Central, making for two strong division favorites; the Astros and Angels were still battling in the West, but the runner-up appeared poised to host the wild-card game.
Three weeks later, only the Royals have upheld their part of that bargain, and that’s largely attributable to the subpar play of their competition—through Friday’s games, no other Central team had a winning record.
But although the Royals seem guaranteed to clinch their first division title in 30 years, the Yankees’ lead came crashing down as quickly as you can say “Troy Tulowitzki.” Toronto won 14 of 15 games after acquiring the Rockies’ erstwhile shortstop and briefly upended the Yankees at the top of the East; as of this writing, New York clings to just a half-game lead.
But Toronto is still four games abreast of the Angels for the second wild card spot, and it now seems more likely that instead of two teams from the West coasting to a playoff spot, the Eastern sluggers in New York and Toronto will occupy those dual roles.
That’s because the top teams in the West have been entrenched in a lengthy malaise. Houston has played just .500 ball since the start of June, but Los Angeles has also struggled to string together wins and has in fact lost ground in recent weeks.
The Angels have tumbled from their lofty heights of mid-July, falling from two games ahead of the Astros to 3 ½ behind. Even more worrisome is that the Angels have nearly frittered away a wild-card position as well: six other teams are now within five games of the Halos.
The race for the last playoff spot is just as jumbled as it was three weeks ago—though based on the spotty play of the teams involved, it’s less a proper race than it is an attempt simply to cross the finish line without falling over.
If that sentence sounds familiar, it’s because it’s nearly identical to one I penned in my last article about the wild-card standings, with only the time frame changed.
In the intervening period, only one team has righted itself, and the others are still stumbling to transform the race from a three-legged shuffle to an Olympic-worthy sprint.
Even Texas, which has rocketed up the standings thanks to a 20-13 record since the All-Star break, has been outscored over that time frame. It’s also jarring to see the Rangers in such a prominent position, given that their trade for Cole Hamels was at the time thought to be a move for next year.
But even with Hamels struggling in his brief stint in Texas—a 5.23 ERA, no wins, and a missed start due to a groin injury—the Rangers have surged, with August sweeps over Houston and Tampa Bay catalyzing their climb in the standings.
It’s a meaningful climb, regardless of the fact that Hamels has failed to fill what could charitably be called a pitching chasm. Besides Derek Holland, who has pitched just 7.1 innings this year in two starts sandwiching a shoulder injury, the Rangers have just one pitcher who has made a single start all season and has an ERA below 4.00.
Texas is just the latest example showing that in a league filled with mediocre teams and five playoff spots to go around, one hot month is all it takes to stay in contention until September.
Detroit is 10 games below .500 since the end of April—but the Tigers started out hot thanks to unsustainable pitching performances from the likes of Alfredo Simon and Shane Green, so they’re still on the fringes of playoff contention.
Minnesota lucked its way to a 20-7 record in May, so never mind the team losing 13 more games than it has won in the other months; the Twins are only two games back—and one more hot streak—away from the postseason.
Texas and Baltimore, both just half a game back of the Angels, have followed the same pattern: The Rangers are five games below .500 in months other than May, and taking out the Orioles’ 18-10 mark in June similarly leaves the team five games below the break-even point.
At this point, predicting the eventual victor of this stumbling slog to the finish line is a fool’s errand. My gut says Baltimore has the best team of the contenders, but the Angels and Rangers get to beat up on Oakland and Seattle in September.
Or maybe a team like Cleveland will have a winning month of its own, or Boston will lengthen its current four-game winning streak to reenter the race. Hey, they might be a combined 17 games below .500, but in this wild-card environment, even lousy teams are just a single hot streak away.
The National League contenders must be laughing at their AL counterparts’ inconsistency, or in the case of the Giants, they’re probably crying at the inequality between the two leagues. While the AL standings bunch around the middle, the NL’s skew toward the extremes: the latter has both three of the four best teams in baseball and six of the seven worst.
Consider the Cubs, currently slated to play on the road in a do-or-die game for the privilege of then opening a series on the road against the team with the best record in baseball.
After an embarrassing sweep at home to the Phillies in late July, the Cubs have bounced back in a big way, winning 16 of their next 18 games and surpassing the Giants in the standings with a four-game sweep. Incidentally, Chicago now leads San Francisco by precisely four games.
That’s certainly a scorching hot streak, but unlike for the AL teams, it’s not isolated; rather, Chicago doesn’t have a losing record in any month this season.
The Cubs would lead four of baseball’s six divisions, but their postseason-starved fans might not even witness a home playoff game this year. Instead, they’re already stuck fretting about whether to start Jake Arrieta or Jon Lester in the wild-card game.
San Francisco, meanwhile, would lead for the AL’s second wild card by 2 ½ games but is currently outside the playoff bracket. The Giants have thus far weathered a daunting stretch of their schedule, going 10-10 in August, and have key series against the Cubs and Dodgers over the next 10 days.
Madison Bumgarner has been excellent both on the mound and in the batter’s box this year, but barring the team returning the favor by sweeping the Cubs this week or overtaking the Dodgers in the division for the first time since May, he might not have the chance to star in a sequel to last year’s playoff heroics.
But that’s the Giants’ luck for racing in the middle of the NL pack while AL teams trade off who’s leading their heat.