Let the eulogies for the Dodgers’ divisional reign ring from Los Angeles to Glendale, from San Francisco and Phoenix to Scottsdale for spring training. Winners of three consecutive National League West titles, the Dodgers have been eclipsed this offseason by the Giants and Diamondbacks, who have collected four top-tier starters between them—or at least that’s what the consensus opinion among panicking L.A. fans and columnists seems to reflect.
It was three Septembers ago that the Dodgers celebrated a division crown in the Chase Field swimming pool; the team celebrated in a more muted style this past fall. But in 2016, the post-Winter Meetings thinking went, that might be the Diamondbacks rejoicing in their own pool, or San Francisco marking an even year with another World Series run.
The Dodgers certainly have question marks—that the team won 43 of 65 games started by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke last year but went just 49-48 in all others is certainly alarming given Greinke’s cross-division exodus to Arizona.
But the L.A. fear-mongering is overblown; the Dodgers still boast the NL West’s most complete team, and because of both the Dodgers’ strengths and their opponents’ weaknesses, L.A. should enter the season as the prohibitive favorite to retain its crown.
Let’s start with the Dodgers and dispel the commonly cited concern that the team’s bloated payroll means its roster is populated by aging, past-their-prime former stars. Only a select few of L.A.’s projected starters fit that description; the Dodgers won’t suffer from the geriatric struggles that have afflicted recent Yankees teams and are soon to destroy the Tigers.
Yasmani Grandal is just 27, Joc Pederson 23, and Corey Seager 21. Yasiel Puig, despite reports from L.A. already linking him to a career’s worth of controversy, is still only 25. Super-utility man Kiké Hernandez is 24.
Backups Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson, and Austin Barnes all figure to accrue a number of fill-in at-bats. Their average age: 25.
The most exciting day-to-day story for Dodgers’ fans to follow will be the development of the youngest of those 20-somethings: top prospect Seager, who replaces Jimmy Rollins and his ghastly .285 on-base percentage in the lineup. The Dodgers haven’t had a shortstop who rates well on both offense and defense since Rafael Furcal manned the position, but if his results from last year’s September call-up are any indication, Seager is in for a stellar rookie campaign (he finished last year 32 at-bats short of losing his rookie status for the 2016 season).
Among players with at least 100 plate appearances last year, Seager ranked fifth in on-base-plus-slugging percentage, trailing only Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Mike Trout. Seager flashed impressive—and perhaps unexpected—power in his first look in the majors, bashing 13 extra-base hits in just 27 games, and fared equally well against right- and left-handed pitchers.
The American League seemed to monopolize the glut of talented young shortstops last year, but Seager could immediately catapult into that top tier in 2016.
Seager’s double-play partner is the one question mark in the Dodgers’ lineup, as the team is relying on 37-year-old Chase Utley for everyday at-bats. But Utley hit just .212/.286/.343 last year, including a meager .202 batting average in a month and change in Dodger blue. It wouldn’t be surprising for Hernandez—who batted a robust .307/.346/.490 last year while playing six positions—to take over more regular time from Utley.
Elsewhere, I have faith in what others might consider to be additional question marks. Pederson might never manage better than a pedestrian batting average, but his on-base skills and power surges make him a fine option in centerfield. In right, Puig is a good bet to bounce back from his injury-riddled 2015 and return to the dynamic, five-tool level he displayed in his rookie and sophomore seasons. And at third base, Justin Turner might not have the flashiest game but has now excelled at the plate in consecutive years, with no signs of slowing down.
The real concern for the Dodgers comes from that 49-48 stat mentioned earlier: Take Kershaw off the mound and the team is merely average. Losing Greinke certainly won’t help that perception.
But even with the Dodgers scuttling a deal for oft-injured Hisashi Iwakuma after discoveries made during his physical exam, L.A. should have more than enough arms to fill the rotation. Scott Kazmir hasn’t been injured since returning to the majors in 2013 and has posted three solid seasons in that span; Alex Wood, another young player, is a capable mid-rotation option; and Japanese signee Kenta Maeda won the equivalent of his league’s Cy Young Award last year.
Beyond those projected starters, it’s reasonable to expect at least one or two pitchers from the Dodgers’ horde of injury-prone, high-reward starters—the Brett Andersons and Brandon McCarthys on the roster—to pan out and provide high-quality innings.
It’s not a stretch to say that the Dodgers’ postseason hopes depend on the development of these non-Kershaw starters, but the depth of options at the back end of the rotation should make it easier to give Kershaw some help.
Rotation problems travel up the California coast, though, and will prevent the biggest obstacle for the Giants in their quest to unseat the division champs.
San Francisco might have the best offense in the National League. Top to bottom, the homegrown lineup presents no easy outs, which speaks to the organization’s success at turning mediocre prospects into above-average big-leaguers.
All five San Francisco infielders have spent their entire careers with the Giants, and they ascended the minor league ladder together en route to forming the core of the team’s lineup. Buster Posey’s talent is well-documented—and rewarded, via his Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year honors—and Brandon Belt was a high-ranking prospect, but the other three were less-heralded in the minors.
If only the minor-league system were still churning out All-Stars for the rotation, too—but the well of Giants’ pitchers seems to have run dry. No more is San Francisco populating the rotation with young Bumgarners, Lincecums, and Cains; instead, the team has resorted to trotting out retreads Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy multiple times a week.
San Francisco added Johnny Cueto to fill the vacant No. 2 slot behind Madison Bumgarner, but it wasn’t entirely clear how many teams were bidding against the Giants for the longtime Reds’ right-hander. Cueto just spent the second half of the season lending credence to concerns about his health, with start after hard-hit start supplying new evidence that the former Cy Young contender was breaking down.
In addition to Cueto, the Giants promised $90 million to Jeff Samardzija, who solicited heavy interest as a free agent despite spending the entire 2015 season hemorrhaging runs. The one-year White Sox’ rental posted a 4.96 ERA, the third-worst mark among all qualified starters, and led the American League in hits, earned runs, and home runs allowed.
Part of Samardzija’s problem stemmed from pitching his home games in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, but even on the road, he surrendered 12 home runs in just 16 games and nearly five runs per nine innings.
Those depressing numbers are just part of a larger trend, which should terrify Giants’ fans who have recently watched Barry Zito, Tim Lincecum, and even Matt Cain waste away while earning eight figures a year. Samardzija’s strikeout rate has decreased each of the last three years, and his underlying numbers last season were remarkably similar to Zito’s in the latter’s final years in Oakland—just before he signed the mammoth deal with San Francisco that almost immediately backfired.
Cueto and Samardzija will likely improve their raw numbers playing in front of a solid defense in San Francisco’s spacious ballpark, but they may not do the same to the team’s odds of fulfilling the even-year World Series tradition.
But at least the Giants have a chance to win the division; that’s more than I can foresee from the Diamondbacks, who might have “won” the winter meetings but won’t see that abstract victory translate to many more wins on the field. The Diamondbacks need to jump from a clear third place to the division lead, but Arizona was 21 games below .500 last year against teams that ended the season with a winning record, and even adding two All-Stars to the rotation isn’t enough to close that deficit.
Perhaps most importantly, the Diamondbacks haven’t made any upgrades to a lineup that most resembles a block of Swiss cheese: Arizona’s starting group has holes everywhere.
Paul Goldschmidt is the only Arizona infielder who posted a better-than-average offensive performance last year. The up-the-middle combination of Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed was particularly inept, as both players ranked in the bottom five in the majors in on-base percentage (minimum 450 plate appearances).
And in the outfield, the trade for Shelby Miller might have just exchanged one weakness for another. Losing No. 1 draft pick Dansby Swanson and top minor-league pitcher Aaron Blair would have already been a hefty price for Miller, but adding outfielder Ender Inciarte to the deal complicated the traditional valuation of a deal that mortgages the future for the present. The Diamondbacks lost a fair amount of present value, as well.
Still a year away from becoming arbitration-eligible (and five years away from free agency), Enciarte is only an average hitter, but he excels with the glove, with which he ranks as one of the sport’s top outfielders by both the eye test and advanced defensive metrics—he finished second among all outfielders in defensive runs saved last year.
His replacement resides at the opposite end of the spectrum. Cuban import Yasmany Tomas will be an adventure in the field, and given his uneven, strikeout-happy performance at the plate last year, it’s unlikely he’ll hit well enough to counterbalance his defensive woes.
That’s half the lineup that remains a question mark for the Diamondbacks, and the team lacks the depth to weather subpar play at so many positions. The extreme stars-and-scrubs approach didn’t work for the White Sox last year, and it won’t for Arizona in 2016.
That’s where the Dodgers’ biggest advantage lies heading into spring training. L.A. has incredible depth, with utility players like Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson, good enough to start for some teams, perhaps being consigned to the minors given the Dodgers’ surplus of majors-ready position players.
Thus, L.A. has the ability to maintain a winning record despite injuries to almost any player on the roster—perhaps everyone besides Kershaw and closer Kenley Jansen—while the Giants are susceptible to losing streaks if a key player goes down and Arizona is already in trouble with an imbalanced lineup.
The Diamondbacks might have beaten the Dodgers for the rights to Greinke for the next six seasons, but they won’t beat them in the standings. The Dodgers will do the city’s basketball team one better and add to their three-peat next fall.