Mets Meet Their (My) Goal

By Murray Chass

July 24, 2008

What a revolting development. Or to paraphrase an old comedy duo line, “Look at the fine mess I’ve gotten myself into.”

For some reason not too long ago, as I have chronicled here, in the belief that the Mets were a better team than their play and their record indicated, I told their general manager, Omar Minaya, that they needed to win 12 games in a 15-game stretch to demonstrate that they belonged in the National League East race.

But then I went a step further. I subsequently told Minaya if the Mets did win 12 of 15, they would win the division championship. No ifs, ands or buts, no qualifying conditions. Win 12 of 15, and first place is theirs. Not the wisest thing I’ve ever said or done.

But that assurance made the game of July 23 the most critical of the season, as far as I was concerned. The Mets had won 11 of 14 and were playing the Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champions and the team that snatched last year’s division championship from their grasp.

The Mets appeared ready to gain victory No. 12 (in 14 games) the night before, but they squandered a 5-2 lead by letting the Phillies score six ninth-inning runs. Now came the critical second game against the Phillies.

I frankly had mixed feelings about the outcome of that game. If the Mets lost, meaning they would have won only 11 of 15, I would be off the hook. My guarantee to Minaya would be rendered moot. But I am a man of my word, and I stand behind my word. I was willing to put myself on the line.

So it was that the Mets won the game and now had won 12 of 15. They have done their part, and now it is up to me to get them the rest of the way. Sixty games to the promised land, the land, that is, that I promised Minaya.

I know one thing. If I get the pitching the Mets pitchers have produced this month, my job will be a whole lot easier. From July 3 through July 24, Mets starters had a 2.81 earned run average. If pitchers give up 2.81 earned runs per nine innings, the team’s chances of winning games are pretty darn good.

Mike Pelfrey started four of those games, averaging more than seven innings a start, and gave up six runs in 29 innings, a 1.86 e.r.a. Five of those runs were scored in one game, meaning he was terrific in the others.

Oliver Perez also started four of those games and, averaging six and two-thirds innings per start, allowed four earned runs in 26 2/3 innings, a 1.35 e.r.a.

Pitching was not supposed to be a Mets strength this season, but Pelfrey and Perez have flourished under Dan Warthen, who replaced Rick Peterson as pitching coach when Jerry Manuel replaced Willie Randolph as manager.

Peterson was a bright pitching coach, but he did not develop a good relationship with his pitchers and they didn’t like him. Warthen obviously has a way of getting through to the pitchers. When general managers change pitching or hitting coaches, they often say some coaches are better than others in communicating with their players. Two coaches can say the same thing, they explain, but the difference is in the way they say it.

Whatever Warthen has said and however he has said it, it has worked. It may be premature to declare Pelfrey and Perez finished products, but in recent starts Pelfrey has resembled Cy Young – not an award winner but the 511-game winner himself – and Perez has shed his frustrating inconsistency.

Warthen’s next project should be John Maine, who throws too many pitches, making for briefer starts than he is capable of producing.

Johan Santana doesn’t need Warthen’s help. He needs more runs, not many but a couple a game. He had a six-start stretch (June 6 through July 4) in which he gave up three or fewer earned runs a game five times (four the sixth time) and compiled a 2.48 e.r.a. and a 0-4 record. The Mets lost all six games.

What kind of way is that to treat a pitcher you give $137.5 million? Santana had an 8-7 record when the Mets gained their 12th victory in 15 games. It could easily have been 12-5. The Mets and their record would look a lot better.

But the day after the Mets made it 12 in 15 they beat the Phillies again and supplanted them in first place. If the Mets were to win every one of their remaining 60 games, they could not be sidetracked on their way to the playoffs.

The idea was not lost on Minaya. “If you win the rest of your games,” I said boldly in an e-mail to Minaya, “you can’t lose the division championship.”

“I agree,” he replied. But he knew the onus was no longer on him. His players did what I said they had to do, and now it’s my turn.

Comments? Please send email to [email protected].