For most people, the biggest pitching development of the past week was probably the $19.75 million contract David Price accepted from Detroit for next season. For me, though, the biggest and most gratifying pitching development was the two innings Johan Santana pitched in a Venezuelan winter league playoff game.
That Santana pitched two innings was terrific in itself; that he retired all six batters he faced with only 17 pitches was better than even he could have hoped for.
“And the two innings were in a stressful situation,” said a veteran scout who is familiar with Santana from his major league days.
Given his last few seasons, the left-handed pitcher could easily have fallen off baseball’s players’ map, but he is back, healthy, pitching again and intent on re-establishing himself as a major league starting pitcher. Barring another mishap, Santana will most likely be signed for the 2015 season at the age of 36. The New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays are among the teams reported to be interested in him.
Santana was one or two minor league starts from returning to the majors with Baltimore last June when he suffered another mishap. He had missed the 2013 season following his second shoulder operation in three years.
“He was added to the Orioles’ 25-man roster June 2,” related Ed Greenberg, who with his brother Peter represents Santana. “He had an out clause in his contract that would add him to the roster before he was ready to pitch in the major leagues.”
“He was at rookie ball, throwing 91-92, faster than the no-hitter,” Peter Greenberg said. “A batter hit a comebacker, he jumped for it and landed wrong on his leg. He blew out his Achilles tendon. He had surgery and said of all the surgeries he’s had this was the most painful.”
Peter mentioned the magic word, magic at least to the New York Mets and their fans: no-hitter. Pitching against the St. Louis Cardinals June 1, 2012, Santana threw the first no-hitter in Mets’ history. It had been a long time coming.
It was so important that Manager Terry Collins let Santana throw the unusually high number of 134 pitches. When Santana’s season ended Aug. 17 because of an ailing shoulder, many people blamed the number of no-hit pitches.
“That’s a question that has been asked repeatedly,” Peter Greenberg said. “I don’t think anyone has the answer to that. There are people who believe that. I think the next start affected him. He was covering first on a grounder to second, Murphy threw behind him, he reached back, turned and landed on his ankle. He continued to pitch. He didn’t feel it, but I think it affected him. It affected his mechanics. He shut himself down.”
Ed Greenberg offered another theory, saying the shoulder ailment stemmed from the first shoulder problem in 2011. Both injuries were a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder, Greenberg said, not a torn rotator cuff or a torn labrum, both of which are more typical pitching injuries.
“It was the capsule in front of the shoulder,” the agent said. “It came apart. It was relatively new surgery. The doctor didn’t want to sew it up too tight. It came apart little by little. The second time he anchored it to the shoulder.”
Until Santana began encountering physical problems – a torn meniscus in his left knee in 2008, bone chips in his left elbow in 2009 – he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. There was a time when he was with Minnesota that I thought he was the best.
In a seven-season span, 2003 through 2009, Santana had a 111-51 won-lost record, a .685 winning percentage, a 2.88 earned run average and seasons of 20, 19, 16 twice and 15 victories.
Now, two shoulder, one knee, one elbow and one Achilles operations later, Santana is trying to work his way back.
“He’s had a run of bad luck,” Ed Greenberg said.
But, Greenberg added, “He didn’t want to go out because of injury. He wants to go out on his own terms He has things he wants to accomplish.”
Neither the pitcher nor his agents are dealing unrealistically with his attempted comeback, but they are confident.
“I don’t have any doubts,” Peter Greenberg said. “The only doubt I would have, the only caveat, is he was coming back last year as one of only two pitchers with two of these capsule operations. I’m not concerned about his arm. He was really back on track. His second pitches were sharp. He always had a great changeup. He really felt he had three quality major league pitches.
“I’m not going to say I know for 100 percent fact that he can come back and make 30 starts and pitch 200 innings.”
Is Santana set on resuming his career as a starter? “It’s too early to tell. Time will tell. That’s his goal; that’s what he’s preparing for.”
Greenberg said there are teams that are following Santana but declined to identify them.
“He’s ready for normal spring training,” Ed Greenberg said. “He’s pitching at a high level of competition.”
Santana started for Magellanes last Tuesday, scheduled to pitch three innings and throw 40 pitches. However, two pre-game rainfalls disrupted his schedule – he had to warm up twice –
and he was limited to two innings. He was scheduled to pitch again Sunday.
The scout, who watched a video of Santana’s two-inning performance, was impressed with how he threw.
“His changeup” – his No. 1 pitch – “was fine,” the scout said. “He has a big separation between his fastball and changeup. He changes speeds on his changeup. His fastball averaged around 89-90. The ball was getting up there. He always had deception. He threw some sliders. His command on the outside part of the plate was good.”
Santana will very likely sign a contract with a relatively low salary and bonuses based on roster time and number of starts and/or innings pitched.
His contract with the Orioles last season called for a $3 million salary and bonuses totaling $5 million based on days on the roster and starts.
SCREAMER DEFLATES ARROGANCE OF STATS STUD
A year or two ago a member of SABR, knowing my view of what their proponents call advanced metrics, was defending SABR and told me a large majority of the organization’s members belong not for the metrics and analytics but for the baseball.
Yet I received an e-mail the other day inviting me to register for the 2015 SABR analytics conference, which is scheduled to be held in Arizona in March. Thanks, but I have to decline the invitation. I have a previous commitment.
Actually, I have seen all the analytics I care to see when I stumbled upon Brian Kenny on MLB network. Kenny has apparently appointed himself chief spokesman for analytics proponents everywhere.
The other day, however, through the courtesy of YouTube, I saw two film clips of noisy debates between Kenny and Christopher Russo. Through the noise I was able to glean these terrific comments from Russo, whom I otherwise make a point of not listening to because I don’t find screaming sportscasters enjoyable.
Russo repeatedly made points of distaste for analytics.
In response to Kenny’s mention of Bill James, who is credited with (or blamed for) the creation of baseball analytics: “You and Bill James can break down your little numbers.”
To Kenny’s “objective methodology – wins above replacement:” “Where do you come up with these wins above replacements?”
“You guys with these stupid statistics.”
To Kenny’s citing of some formula known as RA9WAR—runs allowed per nine and how many innings did you pitch?” “You guys who love that WAR stuff, do you watch the games?”
“Who cares about WAR?”
Kenny: “You are a professional analyst. You should be teaching it.”
Russo: “I don’t pay attention to WAR. Who cares?”
Kenny: “The writers are not doing comparative analysis.” And later: “The writers can’t do comparative analysis; most of them can’t.”
Russo: “The writers are doing an excellent job.”
Russo: Do you guys who love the WAR stuff, do you sit there and watch the ball games?
Kenny: We’re asking the same questions you are, except we want to look it up and we have objective methodology.”
Kenny: “What is your objective methodology in all of this?”
Russo: “Watch the games.”
I was going to let all of this speak for itself, but I feel compelled to comment on one of Kenny’s comments, the one about writers’ not knowing and not doing comparative analysis. Why do writers have to do comparative analysis just because Brian Kenny says so?
His view epitomizes the arrogance of the stats studs. Do it their way or no way. As far as I’m concerned, they can do it any way they want. Just don’t try to impose their way on everyone else because they are arrogant enough to think theirs is the only way.