Independence Day, a.k.a., July 4, follows Memorial Day, a.k.a. the last Monday in May, this year May 28, but both days are used as forecasters of which teams will finish the season in first place. The advent of wild cards has muddled the reliability of these barometers, or has it?

I looked at MemoriaI Days past in a column about six weeks ago and found, courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau, that of the 97 teams that were in sole possession of first place from 1995 through last season on Memorial Day, 56 finished in first place. That computes to 58 percent.

The period began with 1995 because that was the year wild cards, one in each league, were created.

The ratio of winners does not change much when July 4 is used.

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Sometimes I annoy myself by not being quick enough to translate thoughts to Web site. Occasionally in recent seasons I have had a hunch that a particular team that hadn’t played especially well would nevertheless finish first. Sometimes those teams have won division titles, but I can’t claim credit for my foresight because I never publicly declared my prediction.

It’s premature to know if I will endure this experience this season, but I am guilty of waiting too long to state my belief that the San Francisco Giants would catch the Los Angeles Dodgers and win the National League West title. I still believe it, but the surging Giants slipped ahead of the faltering Dodgers last Thursday, knocking them from the top for the first time since the first week of the season.

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The idea is so obvious that I’m almost embarrassed to suggest it. Actually, I should be embarrassed because I have made the suggestion before with no success and here I am raising it again despite knowing it will be ignored. Call it a foolish effort.

But Major League Baseball has defrauded its players and fans for nine years – this year will make it an even 10 – and it’s time to admit the gimmick hasn’t worked and a new link for homefield advantage for the World Series is needed.

Before the 2003 World Series, Commissioner Bud Selig and the club owners were desperate to help Fox Sports raise its ratings for the All-Star game. What was good for Fox, they felt, had to be good for them. But the World Series homefield advantage would go to the champion of the league that wins the All-Star game?

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