Given Bert Blyleven’s criticism of my assessment of his career for my Hall of Fame ballot, I want to be the first to congratulate him on his election a year from now. How do I know Blyleven will be elected in 2011 when the 2010 ballots have hardly been counted? It’s the pattern that has developed in the writers’ voting.

When a candidate’s vote total increases steadily and he gets close to election, he is virtually assured that he will be elected. It happened with Andre Dawson this week, and it happened with Jim Rice last year.

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The Seattle Mariners have spent a busy and productive off-season gearing up for a run at the American League West championship, but to get it they will have to overcome not only the Angels of Anaheim but also recent history.

Last season, according to Bob Waterman of Elias Sports Bureau, the Mariners became the 16th team in the last decade to improve their record by 20 or more wins. Of the first 15, only two teams, the 2005 Cardinals and Padres, went on the following season and won a division title; one other team, the 2001 Cardinals, won the wild card.

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The Yankees won the World Series last Nov. 4, and Brian Cashman began working in earnest Nov. 5. Cashman, the Yankees’ general manager, has no trophy to show for his off-season efforts, but he has already won the unofficial prize for winter maneuvers by club executives.

Most people, including me, were not awarding Cashman any prizes in the off-season two years ago when he passed up the chance to trade for Johan Santana, whom the Minnesota Twins were willing to give the Yankees. Cashman had other plans but didn’t let us in on them. We had to wait a year to find out what they were.

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