While four teams continue to play baseball games, the other 26 have consoled themselves with the knowledge that they are getting an early start on their plans for next season. The way some teams play, though, you have to wonder how bad they could be if they had even more time to plan.
Exhibit A: the San Francisco Giants. They have just completed a 72-90 season that gives them their worst two-season stretch since 1984-85. Coincidence or not, these two seasons have been the first two seasons of Barry Zito’s contract.
Two years ago the Giants made Zito the poster child of free-agent foolhardiness. They gave him a contract that was enormous in years – seven – and in value — $126 million. The Giants thought that the left-hander, who was considered the brightest jewel among free-agent pitchers that winter, would lead them back to respectability and maybe the playoffs.
In two years in San Francisco, though, Zito has won 21 games and lost 30 for his first two successive losing seasons in his nine-year career. His second season (10-17 record, 5.15 earned run average) was worse than his first (11-13, 4.53). This is what the Giants got for their $126 million.
The Barry Zito of last winter’s pitching expenditures was Johan Santana, who wasn’t a free agent but could have been next month had he not signed so he let the Mets give him an early free-agent present, $137.5 million for six years.
Santana, however, was instrumental in getting the Mets to the doorstep of the post-season. If not for the Mets’ inexplicably bad bullpen, Santana’s 16-7 record would have included a number larger than 20. He led the National League in earned run average (2.53) and innings pitched (234 1/3). Unlike Zito, he earned his pay.
The same cannot be said of the only free-agent starting pitcher who received a multi-year contract last winter. Carlos Silva, in fact, had a Zito-like effect on the Seattle Mariners. No, actually the effect was much worse.
By the time Silva’s 4-15, 6.46 season was done, the Mariners had lost their manager, their general manager and more games (101) than they had lost in a season in 24 years.
The Mariners, eager to upgrade their starting pitching, signed Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract even though he was coming off two straight losing seasons. The contract includes an option for a fifth year that would pay him an additional $10 million. Don’t hang around waiting for the Mariners to exercise the option.
Silva was not the Mariners’ first pitching mistake. Three years ago they signed Jarrod Washburn to a 4-year, $37 million contract. In the three years he has pitched for them, Washburn has a 23-43 record. Two years ago they signed Miguel Batista, an author as well as a pitcher, but found him to be a better novelist than a pitcher. He compiled a 20-25 record and 5.03 e.r.a. in the first two years of his 3-year, $25 million contract.
Jeff Weaver took 1 year for $8,325,000 from the Mariners and had a 7-13 record and 6.20 e.r.a. By now you might have the idea that the Mariners are not good judges of pitchers.
But they have not been alone in their poor judgment, though much of the errant signing of pitchers comes from desperate attempts to improve the weakest part of most teams.
Before the 2006 season, the Rangers gave Kevin Millwood a 5-year, $60 million contract. He has produced a 35-36 record with a 4.89 e.r.a. for them. The Giants signed Matt Morris to a 3-year, $27 million contract, but he had a 17-22 record for them before they traded him to the Pirates, for whom he had a 3-8 record. Those records add to 20-30 for a $9 million-a-year pitcher.
Considering the way teams threw money at starting pitchers and derived little payoff in previous seasons, last winter was extremely different. Besides Silva’s deal, the highest salaries, both on a one-year basis, were Andy Pettitte’s $16 million with the Yankees and Kenny Rogers’ $8 million with the Tigers.
What did their teams get for giving their veteran pitchers the same salaries they had in 2007? Pettitte finished 14-14, Rogers 9-13.
Some free-agent pitchers didn’t finish the season. One, Matt Clement, whom the Cardinals signed for $1.5 million, didn’t start it; he was unable to pitch for the second successive season. Bartolo Colon (Red Sox, $1.25 million), and Jason Jennings (Rangers, $4 million) had injury-marred seasons. Steve Trachsel’s pitching (Orioles, $1.5 million) marred his season, and he was released.
Livan Hernandez signed with Minnesota for $5 million, made an additional $666,665 in bonuses based on innings pitched and compiled a 13-11 record but a 6.05 e.r.a. with the Twins and the Rockies. Randy Wolf, who signed with San Diego for $4.75 million, had a 6-10 record with the Padres but 6-2 with the Astros after he was traded. He wound up earning $8.5 million with performance bonuses.
The union has been looking into the possibility of collusion, but the owners could easily base their reluctance to sign last year’s pitchers to attractive contracts on their experiences with starting pitchers the year before.
The Phillies signed Adam Eaton for $24 million over 3 years, and in the first two years he had a 14-18 record and 6.10 e.r.a. The Royals gave Gil Meche $55 million for 5 years, and he had a 23-24 record the first two years.
Jeff Suppan signed with the Brewers for 4 years and $42 million and had a 22-22 record the first two years. Woody Williams took $12.5 million for two years from the Astros, had an 8-15 record and 5.27 e.r.a. the first year and took retirement the second.
Then there were the instances where teams made poor medical judgments:
Jason Schmidt got $47 million for three years from the Dodgers and made six starts the first year and none this year. For their $12 million, the Mets got 24 starts from Orlando Hernandez the first year, none the second. The Cardinals re-signed Mark Mulder to a 2-year, $13 million contract, and he started four games in two seasons.
Not all judgments were bad, however. The Yankees, for example, retained Mike Mussina two years ago for $23 million, and he became a 20-game winner for the first time this year.
The Cubs have had the best results from that free-agent market. They gave Ted Lilly a 4-year, $40 million contract, and he had a 32-17 record the first two years. Jason Marquis had a 23-18 record in the first two years of his 3-year, $21 million deal with the Cubs.
Those nevertheless are the same Cubs who lost in the division series of the post-season and are now among the 26 teams planning for 2009.
The Result of Unrequited Love
Yes, the Cubs. How to explain them? With their sweep by the Dodgers they completed a century of futility. It’s finally starting to get to some of their remarkably faithful fans.
“I’m done with the Cubs, can’t do it anymore,” one fan, Donald Luis Larson, wrote in an e-mail. “I have been a loyal fan for 30+ years, my children are fans because of me, I’ve seen family members pass without a World Series appearance, I can’t put myself and family through another season with hopes pinned on ‘wait until next year.’
“I’m going to draft a letter to each team and announce that I’m becoming a free agent and willing to listen to offers to become their fan. I can offer a new team a solid record of past performance as a fan as I travel to games (including spring training); I purchase the various satellite packages to keep up with the action. I purchase hats, shirts and plenty of food while at the ball park…an overall solid performer as a fan. I would be a good addition to any ball cub.
“I will ask the forgiveness of Harry, Ernie and Ron later but for now I can’t handle another season of disappointment and heartache.”
When I asked this erstwhile Cubs’ loyalist if I could use his tale of woe, he replied. “Please feel free to share my story. If my experiences can help just 1 fan from going down such a heart breaking path it will all be worth it.”
A Case of Multiple Team Personalities
The Texas Rangers keep trying, but they can’t get it right. Yet they compiled a perfect record this year, and they made history.
The Rangers had the best offense and the worst defense in the major leagues. They led the majors in batting average, runs scored and total bases, and they made the most errors, had the worst fielding percentage, had the worst earned run average and allowed the most runs and unearned runs.
According to Elias Sports Bureau research, no team had ever accomplished all of those feats in the same season.
Among all of those dazzling achievements, two numbers that stand out are the Rangers’ runs scored (901) and runs allowed (967). Elias found that the last team that led the majors in runs scored and allowed was the 1986 Cleveland Indians. Those Indians also had a negative run differential, scoring 831 runs and allowing 841, but they also had a winning won-lost record, 84-78. The Rangers finished 79-83.
Rooting for Rays to Cream Red Sox
The Rays’ surprising and sudden success this year has produced more victories and more games than ever for the Tampa Bay team. It is also certain to result in more weight gained in the Tampa Bay area. That’s because the promotion in which Dunkin’ Donuts shops in the area gave out free donuts after each Rays’ victory was an obese success.
Toby Srebnik, spokesman for Dunkin’ in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area, said its stores gave out 253,170 donuts for the Rays’ 97 wins during the regular season. That total was more than twice the 117,600 given out for 66 wins last year.
The team’s winning obviously caught the fancy of the fans because the average number of donuts per win was 2,610 this year compared with 1,782 last year.
The promotion is continuing during the post-season, Srebnik noted, “and Boston Kreme is still the most popular donut given away.”
Rays fans will find the Boston Kremes even tastier if the Rays chew up the Boston Red Sox.
Rays-Red Sox Part II
The Rays obviously have the Red Sox right where they want them. They are following the script they wrote during the season.
Twice in September the teams played three-game series. In each, the Red Sox won the first game and slashed the Rays’ lead over them, to half a game the first time and a week later to two percentage points. But in each instance the Rays won the next two games and rebuilt their lead, which they then maintained to the end of the season.
Now less than a month later they are playing each other again. Once more the Red Sox won the first game of the series, this one for the American League pennant. Once more the Rays won the second game. Game 3 is scheduled for Monday afternoon.
If the Red Sox win, they will have broken the pattern, meaning anything could happen in the series. If the Rays win, the Red Sox may as well accept reality and go home. Well, they will be home because the game is in Boston, but they may as well go home for the winter.