At some relatively early point in the season some people were already proclaiming Bryce Harper and Mike Trout this year’s most valuable players. Send the plaques to the engraver, etch their names on them and just wait for an appropriate moment to put them in their hands.
All hail Harper and Trout.
One minor problem. Four weeks remain in the season, and no votes have been cast. The voters haven’t even received their ballots.
Both Trout and Harper have encountered potholes en route to their anticipated awards. Their teams, contenders earlier in the season, have fallen by the wayside. The Angels and the Nationals could remain mathematically in contention for post-season participation, but they don’t seem to be sufficiently inspired to make it.
The Angels were in first place in the A.L. West at the All-Star break, but they lost 27 of 41 games before Sunday and fell 5 ½ games from the division lead and 3 ½ games off the second wild-card spot.
The Nationals were also in first place at the All-Star break in the N.L. East, but a subsequent 20-26 stretch left them in second place fighting for their post-season lives as the Mets barreled past them with a rejuvenated offensive onslaught. Before Sunday’s games, the Nationals were 5 games behind in the division race and 7 ½ games back in the race for the second wild-card spot.
What does their teams’ status have to do with their candidacy for the most valuable player award? Voters generally focus on the word “value,” which is what they should do no matter what the analytics-obsessed non-voters think and say.
These relatively new-to-the-party noisemakers fail to understand the award’s meaning. They cite their WAR rankings – that would be wins above replacement for the ignorant and unwashed among you – and proclaim the player with the highest WAR ranking most valuable.
The player’s value to his team doesn’t seem to have a bearing on his selection. In other words, they are choosing the player they think is the best in the league, not the most valuable. That’s what is good about the Baseball Writers Association award. They require the voters to think, perhaps to debate. WAR doesn’t require thinking, as far as I know. If I’m wrong, I’m sure someone will tell me.
I recall the BBWAA selection of Justin Morneau as A.L. MVP in 2006. The metrics monster attacked the choice as if it were a violation of one of the 10 Commandments. They brought out their rankings and proudly and boastfully showed why Morneau should not have received the award. Again, they failed to consider Morneau’s value to the Twins, counting only his value to their WAR rankings.
But back to the possible plight of Harper and Trout. If their teams don’t make the playoffs, it could undermine their chances for MVP. I’m not saying a player’s team has to reach the post-season, but if, say, the Angels fall short, how valuable was Trout?
That would especially be the case if a playoff team had a player who was valuable in helping his team get to the playoffs. I’ll get to those players after looking at another element of the award that outsiders don’t understand.
One night last week three commentators or analysts on MLB network discussed MVP candidates. They included the usual suspects but entered two other names for consideration, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Both Goldschmidt, Arizona’s first baseman, and Arenado, Colorado’s third baseman, are having terrific seasons, but MVP?
The Diamondbacks started Sunday tied for third in the N.L. West. The Rockies were in last place in the division, both with losing records. As good as Goldschmidt and Arenado have been, what have they done that is so valuable? Maybe the Rockies could have lost a few more games than the 79 they have already lost.
Once more these analysts, whether or not they realized it, were mistaking “best” for “most valuable.”
So who are the leading MVP candidates?
Despite the Nationals’ effort to undermine Harper’s chances, they have been in post-season contention and continue to be even if they have been shoved to the fringe, and Harper has been the primary reason.
He leads the league in batting average (.337), on-base (.469) and slugging (.647) percentages and runs scored (100), is second in walks (106) and total bases (280) and is third in home runs (33) and extra-base hits (67).
How unusual is Harper? Try this one. Last Thursday against Atlanta he batted four times, walked all four times (once with the bases loaded) and scored four runs. You don’t see this sort of performance every day. In fact, no one had done such a thing in modern baseball history. That covers 115 years.
I should also mention that Harper saw 20 pitches in that 15-1 game before being removed in the sixth inning and swung at none of them.
Some other names to consider for the N.L. award, though no likely winner in the bunch:
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant of the Cubs, Matt Carpenter and Jason Heyward of the Cardinals, Curtis Granderson of the Mets, Adrian Gonzalez of the Dodgers and Buster Posey of the Giants.
And then there’s Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, the 2013 MVP. He started the season at a standstill, batting .194 in April with .302 on-base and .333 slugging percentages. However, he proceeded to fuel the Pirates third consecutive wild-card bid, culminating in his N.L. player-of-the-month August in which he batted .348 with .470 on-base and .609 slugging percentages.
A similar September with the Pirates clinching a post-season spot could make McCutchen a formidable challenger to Harper if Harper is unable to spark the Nationals into the post-season.
With Trout sinking slowly – or rapidly with the Angels in the West – the A.L. MVP award should go to Josh Donaldson, the Toronto third baseman, however the Blue Jays get to the playoffs.
Donaldson has had a lot of help from Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista – and I’ve always felt that the more good players a team has the less valuable each one is – but Donaldson has been too overwhelming to ignore. He plays a pretty good third base, too.
Acquired from Oakland last November for Brett Lawrie in what has to be one of Billy Beane’s worst trades, Donaldson leads the A.L. in runs batted in (112), runs scored (104), total bases (304) and extra-base hits (74), is second in slugging (.581) and third in home runs (36).
Trout, last season’s A.L. MVP, has not disappeared completely in this season’s MVP contest. He is second in on-base percentage (.396), fourth in slugging (.575), tied for fourth in runs (87), sixth in home runs (33) and third in total bases (277), extra-base hits (63) and walks (73).
There was – not is – a candidate who could have been an interesting contender for the award, but Mark Teixeira went and did what he has done a lot in recent seasons. He got hurt.
Joining teammate Alex Rodriguez in a twin comeback, Teixeira was a primary force in the Yankees’ surprising run for the post-season, if not the division title.
Injuries limited the first baseman to 123 games each last season and in 2012 and to 15 games in 2013. But he came back healthy this season, hitting 31 home runs and driving in 79 runs in 111 games. His production and contribution both offensively and defensively warranted MVP consideration.
However, Teixeira fouled a ball off his right shin Aug. 17, suffered a bone bruise and wound up on the disabled list.
Missing much of the last six weeks of the season, if not all of the games that remained, doesn’t work well for an MVP candidate, especially when his team is in a division race and a playoff race.
Worse, Teixeira has lost a chance to win an unusual double – MVP and comeback player of the year. Posey won both in 2012 after suffering a broken leg and torn ankle ligaments in a home plate collision the previous season.