This year’s July trading frenzy had a late start, as the first deal of substance was not consummated until eight days before the deadline. But boy has it been a fun ride in the week since Houston struck first, dealing two prospects to Oakland for pitcher Scott Kazmir.
We’ve seen traditional minnows outbid the big-market sharks and make the biggest splashes. We’ve seen teams flip-flop from buyers to sellers and vice-versa (including one that, incidentally, seems likely not to trade its Shark – Jeff Samardzija). We’ve woken up to a surprise midnight swap of the two highest-paid shortstops in the game. And, as coverage of the trade deadline has become an industry unto itself, we’ve been entertained by countless rumors of deals big and small.
Houston might have launched the flurry of activity, but the Astros haven’t been the only American League contender to fill its most glaring holes in advance of the deadline.
Kansas City one-upped Houston by sating two needs, acquiring Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist to round out its roster. And Anaheim, with a Josh Hamilton-sized hole in leftfield, decided to address the problem with quantity rather than quality, trading for three separate outfielders to create a platoon.
But as much fun as following the deadline and its associated rumors can be,
trades tend to obscure the actual baseball being played, so you might have missed some of the important developments that have arisen in the two weeks since the All-Star break: mainly, that the AL’s playoff picture seems to be taking shape, with one glaring exception, while the National League’s is becoming more hazy.
Back at the break, the AL was a muddled mess, as every team was within eight games of a playoff spot and could reasonably contend for the postseason. But in the standings as well as the transactions column, the AL’s top teams have been separating from the pack, to the point that the two largest division leads belong to American squads.
The Yankees’ lead has jumped from 3 1/2 games to seven and the Royals’ from 4 1/2 to nine. In the West, the Angels and Astros have continued to battle atop the division but mostly left the other three teams behind, with the Rangers, Mariners, and Athletics all posting losing records since the All-Star break.
Whichever team finishes second in the West looks poised to host a wild-card game, but the identity of its opponent is still a mystery. The race for the last playoff spot is just as jumbled as it was two weeks ago—though based on the spotty play of the teams involved, it’s less a proper race than it is an attempt simply to cross the finish line without falling over.
Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Detroit were each within four games of the second wild card spot at the All-Star Break yet have started the second half with a combined 14-19 record (through Tuesday’s games). But Minnesota, currently scuffling along as the second wild card, hasn’t taken advantage of its competitors’ stumbles: the Twins’ 3-7 mark leaves the surprise contender just two games ahead of Baltimore.
The Orioles, meanwhile, have just a 6-5 mark since the break—but compared to the rest of the woeful wild-card pack, anything above .500 constitutes a hot streak, and in the span of four days, Baltimore went from potential seller to likely buyer.
Maybe one of the preseason division favorites—Boston, Cleveland, and Seattle—would take advantage of the opportunity to close the gap and show that the predictors’ faith wasn’t misplaced? Not quite.
The Red Sox lost seven straight in a Western road trip as part of a swift plummet down the standings; they’ve fallen from 5 1/2 games back of the Yankees to a whopping 14 back in a little more than two weeks, and they now own the worst record in the American League.
Cleveland tumbled to the Central’s cellar with a sweep by the White Sox, scoring just five runs in four games, and Sports Illustrated‘s predicted World Series winner seems all but assured of missing the playoffs.
Seattle, which has now gone more than two months without stringing together three straight wins, dropped winnable games to the Yankees and Tigers to fall further behind in the West. Even with Robinson Cano finally heating up, last season’s wild-card race is but a distant memory; remarkably, the Mariners’ magical 2001 season remains the team’s last playoff appearance.
The American League race encapsulates both sides of the erstwhile debate over the second wild card. On one hand, a one wild-card system applied to this year’s standings could prove uneventful in September, given the distance between the top four and the rest of the league; a second wild card, then, artificially injects some excitement into the schedule.
On the other, it lends credence to the doomsday scenario predicted by writers concerned that the addition of a second wild card spot would reward mediocrity. Congratulations, Toronto and Baltimore: you haven’t been more than a game above .500 in three weeks yet can fancy yourself buyers at the deadline.
Heck, the White Sox haven’t sniffed a .500 record since mid-May, but winning six straight against the equally lousy Indians and Red Sox puts them right back in contention.
But hey, there’s good news in the AL: it isn’t difficult to pick out the five playoff teams, as only five teams in the whole league are more than a game above .500.
The National League has a markedly different dynamic. A race that was once expected to manifest as three divisional coronations—the Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers were each near-unanimous picks as division winners in the preseason—has instead evolved into a slate of three two-team battles.
There’s no need to inject artificial excitement into the NL race; with two months left, it appears that all three divisions titles could be in play until the last days of the season.
In the East, the Nationals are like a stereotypical movie villain, letting the hero live just long enough to save the day. The Mets, of course, are led by a pitching staff full of superhero monikers: Thor (Noah Syndergaard) spun eight scoreless innings against the Padres on Tuesday, and the Dark Knight (Matt Harvey) beat the Dodgers with a strong outing over the weekend.
Just a game back, New York just keeps hanging around, and despite a cavalcade of Nationals’ starters returning from the disabled list, the Mets have added a trio of new bats in an effort to keep pace and awaken a dormant offense.
The moves are already paying dividends: minor-league call-up Michael Conforto tallied four hits and four runs in just his second game, and trade acquisition Juan Uribe endeared himself to his new club with a walk-off single on Sunday.
The NL Central provides a point in the second wild card’s favor. Under the old setup, the Cardinals and Pirates would have been relatively free to coast to the playoffs, not really concerned with positioning (see: the Yankees and Rays’ non-battle in 2010). But with the division runner-up possibly stuck facing the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, or Zack Greinke in a one-game playoff, neither the Pirates nor Cardinals will coast to the wild card.
About those Giants: in the West, San Francisco has quietly gone 9-2 since the break and pulled within half a game of the Dodgers. This race could come down to schedule disparities, however.
The Giants’ recent winning binge has come exclusively against teams with losing records, but in an upcoming stretch, San Francisco plays 26 consecutive games against winning teams. During August, meanwhile, the Dodgers can enrich their record with 12 games against Cincinnati, Oakland, and Philadelphia.
It bears repeating that there are two months and around 60 games left on each team’s schedule, so all these developments—the separation in the American League and the opposing tightening in the National—could prove little more than two-week detours on our way to the 2015 playoffs.
But amid the trade rumors that have infiltrated the sport’s consciousness this month, the games are still going on. And October baseball, enticingly, draws ever closer.